Philadelphia Eagles Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Will Hurts Fly or Fall Flat?

The Philadelphia Eagles are on par with tropical cocktails and sunscreen when it comes to hot summer commodities. 

Philly caught everyone’s attention with a playoff berth in 2021 and made waves before the draft by trading for wide receiver A.J. Brown, following that with a solid draft class. That pumped up the Eagles’ NFL odds, with futures, the win total, and lookahead lines all seeing positive movement across the market.

Are those optimistic opinions right or is Philly just a summer crush for NFL bettors? We spread our wings and soar with our Philadelphia Eagles 2022 betting preview.

Philadelphia Eagles futures odds

Best futures bet: Make playoffs – Yes (-165)

Eagles futures have been on the move since the spring, with markets like winning the NFC East moving from +250 to +155 and the win total jumping a full victory from 8.5 (Over -140) in May to 9.5 (Over -125) at the start of training camp. 

The playoff prop also shifted from “Yes” -115 to -165 and the “No” jumped from -105 to +145. If you’ve read my betting previews for Arizona and New Orleans — likely the two teams to challenge for an NFC Wild Card spot — you’ll see I’m not in love with either, in terms of win totals, so the Eagles are the fit.

On top of a great rushing game and an improved defense in Year 2 under coordinator Jonathan Gannon, Philadelphia’s light schedule isn’t asking Jalen Hurts and this passing attack to be the 2007 Patriots.

Philadelphia Eagles betting overview

What will win bets: Ground and pound

All the attention is on Hurts and the progression of the passing game, but when shit hits the fan in Philly, the Eagles are going to run you down. Philadelphia finished atop the league in rushing yards last season, with a deep group of dynamic running backs along with Hurts’ ability to make plays with his legs.

The gears of this rushing attack are solid up front with one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the business. Not only does this wear down foes over four quarters but can also protect leads late in games — leads needed to cover your precious point spreads.

What will lose bets: Dr. Jalen & Mr. Hurts

Hurts’ legitimacy as a quality quarterback will come to a head in 2022. He’s set up to succeed, with outstanding receivers, a run game holding defenses down, and one of the best offensive lines keeping him clean. In the end, though, he’s going to have to make throws.

Hurts’ best games under center came against crap competition in 2021 and the Eagles’ second-half surge had little to do with his play (they actually took the ball out of his hands more often) and more to do with an embarrassing schedule of weak foes or teams plagued by injuries/COVID.

Tampa Bay showed us what’s what with the Eagles’ QB in the playoffs, building a wall against the run and begging Hurts to throw the ball. He did not do well. If Hurts doesn’t make opposing defenses respect him, all is doomed.

Philadelphia Eagles game-by-game odds

The football gods gifted Philadelphia the 30th-ranked strength of schedule (life in the NFC East while drawing AFC South in non-conference play) and my QB SOS follows suit, pitting the Eagles against the softest slate of rival passers in the land.

The lookahead lines have the Eagles as favorites in at least a dozen games, depending on where you bet, which exceeds their win total of 9.5 at sportsbooks. 

Philly is far from a runaway chalk in those contests, save for matchups with Jacksonville and Houston, giving four or fewer points in 10 of those 12 contests as favorites. Short faves have been point spread poison in recent years, with teams between -1 and -4 going just 160-219-4 against the spread the past three seasons (42%).

Philadelphia Eagles pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

The Eagles have built a very talented roster, but I have questions about the quarterback. I think Philly will be a bully when playing inferior teams, but struggle against top tier teams (similar to last season).

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Philadelphia Eagles early season forecast

The early schedule doesn’t look too tough at first glance, with Philadelphia a short fave in the first three games, but Detroit, Minnesota, and Washington are all expected to make improvements in 2022. 

Things get started with the Boys 2 Men matchup (Get it? Motown Philly. Ah shit, I’m old) when the Eagles open at Detroit. Philadelphia opened as low as -3.5 and has been bet up to as high as -4.5 after adding A.J. Brown as a big option in its offense. Philly smacked the Lions 44-6 at Detroit last Halloween.

In Week 2, the Eagles face a team likely jockeying with them for an NFC Wild Card spot at the end of the year. Philadelphia is a 2.5-point home favorite hosting Minnesota on Monday Night Football. The Vikings draw Green Bay in Week 1, and should they lose and Philly drop Detroit, this spread could climb to a field goal.

Toss in the fact Kirk Cousins’ teams are 10-18 straight up in primetime, including 2-9 SU on MNF, for his career and this sucker is definitely hitting -3.

The Eagles open divisional play against a familiar face and not-so-familiar nickname: Carson Wentz and Commanders. Philadelphia is set between a PK and -1 coming into this NFC East grudge match on a short week. Nick Sirianni was 3-3 SU against divisional foes in his first season but finished 1-4-1 ATS in those games. In fact, Philly is just 14-22-1 ATS (40%) vs. the NFC East going back to the Doug Pederson days (2016).

Philadelphia Eagles spot bet

Week 16: @ Dallas (+4, 49.5)

It stings a bit that the Eagles’ most important game of the season comes in such a shite situational spot. Not only does Philadelphia venture to Dallas in Week 16 with divisional/playoff stakes but this game also serves as its third straight road game.

The Eagles are in East Rutherford to play the Giants in Week 14, travel to chilly Chicago to play the Bears in Week 15, before heading to Jerry World to clash with the Cowboys. But that’s not all. This third straight road game comes on a short week (played Saturday) and is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Christmas Eve of all days — so personal plans clash with travel for many players.

Philadelphia Eagles totals tip

Philadelphia finished 10-7 Over/Under in the regular season but started out as a 2-4 Over/Under bet in the opening six weeks before Sirianni unleashed the rushing attack, and it carried the rest of the offense Over plenty of paltry totals. The defense sucking against the pass also played a role in some of those higher-scoring finishes.

The offseason highlight was bringing in Brown, but while that top WR draws headlines, the franchise also bolstered a pass defense that was toothless with a league-low in sacks (29) and a league-high in opponents’ completion percentage (69.97%). Pass rush additions like Haason Reddick will improve those stats, as will a much weaker slate of rival QBs.

Hurts’ maturation is the mystery of all mysteries, but even if he does excel, Sirianni would be dumb to go away from such a dominant ground-and-pound playbook that leads to many positives on both sides of the ball. That means plenty of shorter pickups with the clock ticking.

The market seems a little aggressive on Philadelphia’s totals in 2022 when compared to last year’s closing numbers, with seven Over/Unders of 47 points or more — a line last year’s team stayed well short of in the final eight games of the season.  

Star power: Jalen Hurts props

Best prop: Over 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

Hurts may not have the star power of A.J. Brown but when it comes to the 2022 season, the Eagles’ QB may not only be the linchpin for this team but also the division. Hell, maybe even the conference. Reports from OTAs were contrasting, with players and coaches singing Hurts’ praises while the Philly media told a different story.

As we saw in games last year, teams are going to stack the box and force Hurts to beat them with his arm. This will go double inside the red zone, where the Eagles ranked eighth in TD percentage last season. Hurts has great RZ targets in Brown, DeVonta Smith, and 6-foot-5 TE Dallas Goedert as well as pass-catching RBs in Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.

It’s not just inside the 20-yard line where those touchdowns will manifest. This RPO attack will suck in plenty of defenses on play-action calls, with Hurts hitting Smith and Brown over the top for a number of TDs in 2022.

Philadelphia Eagles trend to know

We mentioned the Eagles’ woes against the spread in divisional dances, covering a mere 40% of the time since 2016. Whelp, even extra points can’t save Philly bettors from flushing their hard-earned dollars down the drain in those NFC East encounters.

Going back to 2016, Philadelphia is a dismal 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS as a divisional underdog, including a 0-2 SU and ATS finish in Sirianni’s first season with the club. 

Luckily for Philly fans, the lookahead lines have the Eagles as dogs in just one NFC East matchup in 2022.

Underdog NFC East matchups 

• Week 16 @ Dallas (+4, 49.5)

Pages related to this topic