Despite a 42-point performance from Luka Doncic and a 14-point halftime lead, the Dallas Mavericks could not pull out a Game 2 win on Friday night and now are now down 0-2 to start the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors. However Dallas is no stranger to being down 0-2 as that is the exact position they were in the last round, and they stand a chance tonight to turn their fate much like they did against the Suns.
Stephen Curry led the Game 3 effort for the Warriors, chipping in a team-high 32 points on 6-for-10 shooting from deep. Can the Dubs keep their foot on the gas or will Dallas answer back from the comforts of the American Airlines Center? Check out our favorite NBA player props for Warriors vs. Mavericks.
Be sure to also check out our full game betting analysis.
Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 props
Draymond's passing potential capped
The Warriors continue to frantically move the ball around to give Dallas different looks in order to combat its aggressive defensive tendencies. In a similar vein to Game 1 in which six different players notched 3-4 assists and with no clear offense initiator, the Warriors had five players tied with the team-high of five assists.
As noted in Game 2's writeup this approach puts a hard ceiling on Draymond Green's contributions as a passer and his assists totals. Green has just eight assists in the first two games of the Western Conference Finals after averaging 7.0 in the regular season and 6.6 across his first 11 playoff games.
NBA's potential assists metric, which measures the expected value of all of a player's passing as opposed to just the passes that result in made shots, has Draymond Green at just 15 potential assists combined across Games 1 and 2. For reference, he averaged 14.6 potential assists per game against Denver in the first round and 13.3 against Memphis last round.
His prop for Game 3 has been moved a full assist down to Under 5.5 +115 as opposed to Game 2's Under 6.5 -125, but it's still worth the stab all things considered.
PICK: Draymond Green Under 5.5 assists (+115)
Bullish on Bullock
Reggie Bullock has been one of the Mavericks' brighter spots in this series despite the outcomes of the games. He has chipped in 33 points on 9-for-20 (45.0%) shooting from deep across Games 1 and 2, including a playoff-high 21 on Friday night. The Warriors are seemingly okay with allowing Bullock to get his while they focus their defensive attention elsewhere.
Role players tend to contribute significantly more at home in the playoffs, and that has been the case thus far for Bullock. Prior to this series, Bullock averaged just 8.1 points on 15 of 42 shooting from three (35.7%) on the road while averaging 12.7 points on 20-for-48 (41.7%) 3-point shooting at home.
Between his home-away splits and the hot start he has gotten off to in this series, Bullock can be expected to chip in a fair share on Sunday night.
PICK: Reggie Bullock Over 10.5 points (-130)
Brunson math 101
One of the core principles of betting player props is understanding how to generate value based on wide discrepancies in a player's average output and his median output. Jalen Brunson's 3-point shooting is a good example of this.
Brunson is averaging 1.47 made 3-pointers per game in the playoffs thus far, but that average is skewed by a few outlier performances. Half of his made threes in these playoffs have come in two games: Six in Game 2 against Utah (with Luka Doncic was out) and five in Game 2 against the Warriors on Friday night.
His median output is one made three, and on top of that, he has made one or zero threes in 10 of the 15 playoff games (33.3%) he has played thus far. It just so happens that his O/U for 3-pointers made is 1.5 for Game 3, which is likely inflated from his Game 2 performance.
PICK: Jalen Brunson Under 1.5 threes made (-105)
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