1* LIU/Air Force Under 137.5
It's a small sample size, but it's all we got to go off. Air Force is 346th in tempo, 339th in offensive efficiency, and 357th in turnover%. They aren't going to score a lot of points. LIU just played IU-Indy which is going to inflate offensive numbers due to it being an 86 possession game. This game will be MUCH slower, and add in the altitude adjustment, slow is the way to go for the visitors, just so you can keep your guys as fresh as possible.
2*Florida/Florida St Over 180.5
It's a big number, but under the new regime, the Noles are runnin' and gunnin'. They've gotten to triple digits both times out this year, albeit vs bottom tier DI opponents. But Florida will have no issues going up and down with them, they probably prefer to. Their game against Arizona to open the year, got to 180, and 82 possessions. I'd imagine we see closer to 90 possessions tonight.
1* Florida St Seminoles +16.5
That's a lot of points in a rivalry game, I don't care who it is. These aren't the last couple of years of FSU basketball teams. These kids are athletic as hell and Robert McCray does a great job of finding guys for easy buckets. Defense is gonna be optional in this one, and that's too big of a number to cover in a game like this, in my opinion.
3* Winthrop -2.5
I can't figure out why this line is so low, so if anyone has any ideas, please share them. Coastal Carolina lost to Western Michigan, and beat a DII school. WMU lost to a DIII school. That is very unattractive. They have zero depth at guard, so any sort of foul trouble and they are toast too. Winthrop on the other hand, starts 5 seniors, just took George Washington to the final mins on Friday, scoring 90 while doing so. The line doesn't make a lot of sense, which is scary, but I'd be pissed if I passed on such a gift.
1* Dayton Flyers +6.5
Revenge spot for the Flyers after last years 7 point loss. It's the battle of two styles really. Cincy has played two games and both have been 75 possessions or more, while the Flyers have played two games and never gotten over 66 possessions. They both have mountains in the paint, but the difference for me is at PG. Kerr Krissa is a turnover liability and I don't like that against this defense. I think Anthony Grant is the better coach as well. Dayton may not win, but they should keep it within two possessions.
1*Army Black Knights +33.5
There is no basketball logic behind this play. Coach K went to West Point, and has joined the team on the trip. They were touring the dorms and getting the royal treatment with Coach K. I think, out of respect for the school, and his mentor, Scheyer won't let the Devils run it up on Army, on Veterans Day. It's a wild theory, I get it, but it makes just enough sense for me to bet on it at that number.
1* Buffalo Bulls +18.5
First, I don't like Christ Holtmann as a coach. Never have. So maybe a little bias here. But the Bulls have four seniors and four juniors, and return the MAC 3rd leading scorer in Sabol, so the road game isn't a big concern, and DePaul has cross-town rival in Northwestern on deck, which is their first big test of the year. This is a lot of points for a team with experienced guards to be getting.
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